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September 30, 2019



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The recession is coming, the recession is coming! Have you been hearing this lately?

I have been having conversations with clients all the time who are scared out of their minds! They’re very worried about when the next recession is coming. But before we declare that the sky is falling and put ourselves in a state of panic, let’s take a pause and dive in a little deeper.

In today’s video, I’m discussing:

  • The role media plays in painting a “doom and gloom” picture
  • Important key factors that indicate a recession and what they are telling us about the current economic state
  • Trends to keep an eye on. History has been fairly consistent… what’s it telling us now?

Click here to watch the full video or read the full video transcript, below.


I want to focus first and foremost on why the news media does what they do. They are trying to sell viewers! They want people to watch and keep watching.

In order to sell, the media continually parades out people who are coming on and talking about doom and gloom. The world’s coming to an end! The sky is falling! It’s in their best interest to do that.

Keep in mind that the news stations have ulterior motives – to keep you watching!

Today, I’m talking about 5 reasons why I don’t think a recession is on the horizon and why you may still want to be positive about the direction of the economy.


If you go back to August, housing starts were the highest they’ve been in 12 years and here’s why that matters; housing starts are a very important leading indicator. Builders do not build homes if they do not think that they can sell that home quickly.

Housing starts have been a very strong predictor of prior recessions. As housing starts and building permits deteriorate, it’s a strong sign that a recession is probably on the near horizon.


The University of Michigan has a very popular, well documented index that they put out on a monthly basis. The most recent reading came in at 92. Anything above 90 is considered very popular or a positive indicator for continued growth. The fact that we’re still at 92, despite everybody out there being so fearful, says that the consumer still feels pretty good and is well in the range of positive as far as pointing to the economy continuing to move in the right direction.


The inverted yield curve has dominated the news along with the trade war with China, Mr. Trump and his Twitter feed. But the inverted yield curve is basically when short term rates are higher than long term rates. It signals that something is wrong because the shorter-term rates should be lower than long term rates. When they invert like that, it’s a sign for a lot of reasons that the economy may be slowing down.

Historically, on average, it takes about 18 months from the time that the yield curve inverts to the start of the next recession. It’s also taken as long as three years.

But it’s not the imminent sign that the news media would have you believe. It’s something to watch though. Just keep an eye on the inverted yield curve because it’s a strong leading indicator and has predicted every recession going back about 65 years or so without fail.


The S&P 500 profitability is the earnings and profits of the largest 500 largest companies in the United States. What’s going on with those big businesses is a strong indicator of the direction of the economy.

Most of the companies in the S&P 500 have now finished reporting their earnings for the second quarter of 2019. Across the board, the average year over year growth and profits was 5%. Not like a massive growth and profitability, but it shows you that these companies and their profits are still moving in the right direction.

Over 70% of the S&P 500 companies in the second quarter of 2019, beat expectations on their earnings. This means that they reported better earnings, stronger earnings than what they had forecasted.

It’s a really strong indicator that the economy and big businesses are still going in the right direction.


Companies are still hiring, and the unemployment rate is still very low. The rate of job growth is slowing down because pretty much everybody who is employable has been hired at this point. The pool of applicants is getting much smaller and it’s harder and harder for companies to find qualified applicants. Although the rate of hiring of new jobs is slowing down, we are seeing more wage growth to counterbalance.


There you have it, 5 reasons to remain positive in this bipolar, economic climate that we’re in. One day we’re up and it feels good, then the next day it’s doom and gloom. Until a lot of these leading indicators begin to sort of roll over and change, I don’t really see a strong reason why we need to be negative about what’s going on.


Now is an excellent time to review your asset allocation and the mix of stocks and bonds that you have in your portfolio. The time to be reducing your exposure to stocks is right now when the stock market and economy are strong!

If you have questions about your asset allocation and where you should be in this economic climate relative to your retirement portfolio, schedule a free 15-minute strategy call with me!

Schedule your free 15-minute portfolio strategy call >>>


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Ashley Micciche of True North Retirement Advisors


The views outlined in this newsletter are those of True North Retirement Advisors (TNRA) and should not be construed as individualized or personalized investment advice. Any economic and/or performance information cited is historical and not indicative of future results. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for a given client or portfolio.

Investing in stocks includes numerous specific risks including the fluctuation of dividend, loss of entire principal and potential illiquidity of the investment in a declining market. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond and bond mutual fund values and yields will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

Any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above should be addressed with TNRA. All information, including that used to compile charts and/or tables, is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but TNRA has not verified its accuracy and does not guarantee its reliability.

Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in the newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from TNRA or from any other investment professional. To the extent that you have any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to your individual situation, you are encouraged to consult with TNRA or the professional advisor of your choosing. All information, including that used to compile charts, is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but TNRA has not verified its accuracy and does not guarantee its reliability.

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